
Austria must increase wind power production nearly sixfold from 2024 levels to stay on track for its 2040 climate-neutral target, according to a new report from the Austrian Energy Agency.
The agency argues that wind energy is far more crucial than solar or hydropower in the country’s energy transition, particularly as it provides electricity throughout winter.
Winter shortages risked by solar expansion
“If we continue expanding as set out in the Renewable Expansion Act, with equal annual generation from wind and solar power, we will create an electricity system that produces massive surpluses in the summer half of the year but likely shortages in winter,” said one of the study’s authors, Günter Pauritsch.
Without a shift in focus, Austria would have to rely on large electricity imports in winter or invest in costly long-term storage for summer solar surpluses.
Under the agency’s projections, Austria’s electricity demand will double to 150 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2040. Hydropower output is expected to rise slightly from 44.7 TWh to 48.4 TWh, while solar power will increase from 8 TWh to 33.5 TWh. Wind energy, however, would see the biggest jump – from 9 TWh to 52.5 TWh.
Thermal power stations, which will switch from natural gas to hydrogen, are forecast to produce 14.2 TWh, up from 13 TWh.
Import dependence to drop to 10%
The report also looks at Austria’s wider energy system, which remains 60% reliant on fossil fuels. This dependence means a high reliance on imports, with Austria spending €12bn on energy imports in 2023 – €7.4bn on crude oil and €4.3bn on natural gas.
However, the agency believes Austria can switch 97% of its energy system to green technologies by 2040, cutting import dependence to 10%.
Despite economic and population growth, overall energy consumption is projected to fall by 20% to 296 TWh. The agency says electrification will be key to this, with transport, heating and industry shifting away from fossil fuels.
The rise of battery-electric vehicles is expected to reduce energy consumption in transport from 96 TWh to 33 TWh. In home heating, heat pumps and district heating networks are seen as the dominant systems of the future. Meanwhile, electricity is set to become the main energy source for industry.