Although the gold price has fallen following the easing of the trade conflict between the US and China—“and there is already some wailing over the small correction”—gold expert Ronald Stöferle still sees “plenty of room to rise.” He is sticking to his long-term price target of $4,800 (approx. €4,280) per ounce by 2030. He sets the “absolute lower limit” of the current price correction at $2,800.

In their 19th “In Gold We Trust” report, published Thursday by asset manager Incrementum, lead authors Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark Valek assume that the gold price could even rise to $8,900 by the end of this decade in an inflationary scenario. Since the release of the 2024 report, gold has risen by more than 35 percent, outperforming many stock markets. “Gold is no longer at bargain levels,” Stöferle admitted at the presentation of the 440-page gold report, but “we’re not at the end of the road.”

“The Big Long”

The central theme of the current edition is “The Big Long”—a nod to the book title “The Big Short,” which describes the collapse of the U.S. housing market. Accordingly, gold could once again play a monetary role and gain importance in a geopolitically and economically increasingly fragmented world as a safe haven. The authors also point to geopolitical changes—from Donald Trump’s trade policy to a potential repositioning of the U.S. dollar. In a scenario of political uncertainty, ideas such as a revaluation of U.S. gold reserves or gold-backed bonds could again move to the forefront.

The U.S.’s economic and political realignment—Valek speaks of the “Trump shock”—is more than just a trade war, Valek emphasized. For the first time, the new U.S. administration is “addressing the persistent imbalances on the fiscal, trade, and ultimately also monetary level.” It is the first time a U.S. government has openly acknowledged the country’s structural over-indebtedness. While interest payments on national debt remained stable relative to GDP in the 2010s, debt continued to grow. “That was only possible due to years of zero interest rates.” Now, however, the U.S. has fallen into a “zero-interest trap”—interest costs have already exceeded the defense budget.

The hoped-for savings from Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative will fall far short—estimates for this year are around $155 billion. “That is a large sum, but compared to total government spending, it’s relatively small.” It’s unclear how the U.S. plans to eliminate the structural trade deficit, said Valek. It’s unlikely that this can be achieved through current trade and tariff policy, “in our view.” The gold experts believe the Trump administration will attempt to sharply devalue the dollar.

Central banks as price drivers

A key driver of the gold price remains central bank demand. According to Stöferle, they act “without price sensitivity” and view gold as a strategic, politically neutral reserve asset. For three consecutive years, central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold. Last year alone, they spent over $100 billion on gold. “Poland was, incidentally, the largest gold buyer.” Physical demand remains a stable pillar of the gold market—especially in Asia and the BRICS countries. “Western financial investors have missed this rally.” Since the beginning of 2025, inflows into physically backed gold ETFs have also increased significantly, after declining in previous years.

Silver, mining stocks, and commodities in the slipstream

In addition to gold, the authors see great potential in silver, mining stocks, and strategic commodities. These typically lag slightly behind the gold rally—but in past major bull markets, they have also seen significant percentage gains. Their current undervaluation relative to gold suggests further catching-up potential.

Especially for silver, the valuation is very low by historical standards—the gold-silver ratio, i.e., the ratio of the prices of the two precious metals, stood at more than 1:100 at the end of April. “This means one ounce of gold could buy 100 ounces of silver.”

Golden future for Bitcoin

The experts also predict a golden future for Bitcoin: While in a conservative scenario, the gold market capitalization could rise from the current $22 trillion to around $38 trillion by the end of the decade, Bitcoin could—according to Valek—grow from its current $2 trillion market cap to 50 percent of global money in an optimistic case.