Austria’s population is expected to grow from 9.1 million today to 10.2 million by 2080, crossing 10 million in the 2060s, with migration as the only reason for the increase, according to a new report by Statistik Austria.
“We expect Austria to surpass the ten-million mark in the 2060s. Without migration, the population would shrink to 6.9 million by 2080, roughly the same level as in 1950,” Tobias Thomas, Director General of Statistik Austria, said at a press conference in Vienna.
The forecast expects 147,000 people to move to Austria each year, although this figure could vary by as much as 30,000 either way.
Austria’s natural population growth is expected to remain consistently negative, as more people die than are born. The current fertility rate is 1.3 children per woman, a level linked to economic uncertainty.
Regional Differences
The population increase will not be spread evenly across the country. Vienna, which attracts around a third of international migrants, is set for above-average growth. In contrast, Carinthia is the only region expected to see a slight decline in population.
Ageing Population and Workforce
In 2023, 20% of the population was aged 65 and over, with the figure projected to rise to nearly 27% by 2040 and 29% by 2060.
Meanwhile, the working-age population – those aged 20 to 64 – is expected to shrink from 5.6 million in 2023 to a low of 5.2 million by 2063, before recovering slightly to 5.3 million by 2080. The reduction will place additional pressure on Austria’s social welfare systems, including healthcare, pensions and care services for the elderly.
Thomas pointed to Austria’s relatively early retirement culture as a concern, saying that only half of men aged 60 to 64 are still in work. “This is a stark contrast to Germany and falls well below the EU average,” he said. Austria also has high levels of part-time work, although more detailed data is needed to assess the number of hours worked.
Life expectancy, which fell during the Covid-19 pandemic for the first time in decades, is expected to rise again, though the extent of the increase remains uncertain.
