Birth rates in Austria saw a decline in the later stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, with inflation playing a continuing role, according to researchers from the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).
After an initial period of uncertainty, which led to some hesitancy in starting families, the pandemic caused a small rise in births by spring 2021. However, by November of that year, the trend reversed, with fertility rates falling again. This decline continued into 2022.
The total fertility rate in Austria fell from 1.51 children per woman in November 2021 to 1.42 in October 2022.
The ÖAW researchers, led by Maria Winkler-Dworak, Kryštof Zeman and Tomáš Sobotka, analysed birth data from 21 European countries, as well as Israel, Canada, the US, Japan and South Korea, between November 2021 and October 2022.
The data, gathered from the Human Fertility Database, showed a decline in nearly all countries during this period. Unlike past events such as the Spanish flu, birth rates didn’t bounce back at the end of the pandemic.
Economic uncertainty and inflation to blame
The researchers identified several factors behind the continued decline in birth rates. Economic uncertainty, which has been shown in previous studies to affect fertility, was a major contributor. “While the job market improved after the initial pandemic slump, which could have supported a rise in birth rates, inflation increased due to disruptions in supply chains, offsetting this positive effect,” said Winkler-Dworak.
Another factor was the timing of vaccination programmes. Countries saw a temporary decline in births around nine months after large-scale vaccinations were rolled out. Many women, the study found, delayed having children until they were fully vaccinated, though the researchers stressed that vaccines themselves did not negatively impact fertility.
The downward trend shows no sign of reversing, either. According to Statistik Austria, the country’s total fertility rate for 2023 is projected to be 1.32, down from 1.41 in 2022. Winkler-Dworak pointed to the rising cost of living, saying, “The sharp increase in inflation from 2022 is undoubtedly a key factor, and its effects are still being felt.”
In addition to inflation, recent studies suggest that the war in Ukraine has also led many women and couples to postpone or even abandon their plans to start a family.
