Austria could become a hotspot for heat-related fatalities in Central Europe as the world faces the growing impacts of climate change, with heat-related deaths potentially surpassing cold-related ones in the future, according to a new study.
The projected heat-related death toll for Austria could rise by nearly 12,000 between 2050 and 2054 if no adaptation measures are taken. This increase mirrors trends observed in Switzerland, southern Germany and parts of Poland.
The study predicts that in warmer climate scenarios, heat-related fatalities will become the leading cause of death, particularly in Southern, Central, and Eastern Europe.
Currently, for every heat-related death in Europe, there are up to ten cold-related fatalities. However, the study, led by Pierre Masselot from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, suggests this ratio could soon reverse.
Cold-related deaths are not limited to cases of freezing, but refer to the increased number of fatalities when temperatures fall below the optimal range of around 20°C. Colder temperatures can exacerbate respiratory diseases and weaken immune systems, contributing to higher death rates.
Projected Impact and Regional Differences
The study’s authors assessed how different climate scenarios would affect 854 European cities, considering the expected age demographic of local populations. Areas where significant warming intersects with ageing populations are predicted to experience increased mortality due to heat, as the elderly are particularly vulnerable to heatwaves and circulatory issues. In contrast, fewer cold-related deaths are expected as winters become milder.
Under a now unlikely scenario of a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, the researchers predict an excess of around 6,000 heat-related deaths per year. However, if temperatures rise by 4°C, this figure could soar to nearly 70,000, with projections ranging from 16,000 to 136,000.
The researchers heavily relied on the “SSP3-7.0” socio-economic pathway from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to rise in a world marked by conflict and nationalism. In this scenario, between 2050 and 2054, Southern Europe could see around 36,000 fewer cold-related deaths due to milder winters. However, this would be offset by about 82,000 premature heat-related deaths.
